Future Fire

Predicted hotter and drier climates will modify wildfire intensity, extent, frequency, and seasonality. The Future Fires program will use strategic foresight and cutting-edge models to anticipate and help prepare for the wildfires of the future.

Changing climate – changing fire

Climate change is affecting both the nature of fire, and our interactions with it. Predicted hotter and drier climates for Australia will modify wildfire intensity, extent, frequency, and seasonality. Human populations are also rapidly expanding, placing greater demands on ecosystem services, and increasing encounter rates between people and fire. Recent wildfire disasters around the world are stark reminders of the urgent need to improve our preparedness for changing fire regimes.

Managing future fire regimes requires broad scale thinking

While fire as a process drives regeneration in ecosystems worldwide, altered fire regimes can lead to profound ecosystem change and the approaches to managing these changes can be contested. Given this, a better understanding of how we will manage, and live with, future fire regimes is a key area of research focus. Addressing future fire regimes requires broad, transdisciplinary thinking across big temporal and spatial scales.

Future Fire research themes are wide ranging

The Future Fire program is an emerging capability within the FLARE Wildfire Research Group and seeks to take longer-term views and work across a range of disciplines.

It will develop the following areas of research and allow us to:

  • predict and anticipate the key threats posed by future fire patterns
  • explore how institutions will strategically manage change and the novel challenges from future fires
  • address the dynamic interdependencies between fire, climate, society, and environment values
  • provide a forum to explore the desirable futures
  • have both a national and international research scope

Projects we are currently working on in this field

Future fire regimes increase risks to obligate-seeder forests

Many species are adapted to a particular fire regime and major deviations from that regime may lead to localised extinction. Here, we quantify immaturity risks to an obligate-seeder forest tree using an objectively designed climate model ...

Development of state-wide future fire risk estimates

Understanding how fire regimes are shifting with climate change and therefore how bushfire risks are changing is a key knowledge gap for many management jurisdictions in Australia, including biodiversity management. Preserving species and ...

Climatology of overnight fire weather conditions in south-eastern Australia

This project builds on a related project - Overnight fire weather conditions in NSW during Black Summer - to explore spatial and temporal patterns in overnight fire weather conditions in south-eastern Australia. It will help to build up a ...

Predicting future fire regimes in south-eastern Australia and the implications for biodiversity

Fire regimes are changing around the globe. Fire seasons are lengthening, high severity fires are occurring more often and in unexpected places. These shifts in components of the fire regime will have impacts on vegetation composition and ...

Future fire regimes in the Pyrocene

Large and severe wildfires impact people and places globally, and recent examples of extensive wildfires around the world – from Southeastern Australia, Western USA, Greece, Portugal, Canada, and, unexpectedly, in the historically cool ...

Characterising and managing fire risks to plantations under changing climates

Changing climates are creating significant fire risks to Australian plantations. Fires are predicted to become more frequent and intense, potentially resulting in increased plantation losses to wildfire. Existing fire simulation models do not ...

Climate hazards synthesis (Bushfire)

Every 5 years the Victorian Government delivers a Climate Hazards Synthesis report, with the next one due in 2024. This DEECA-funded project is contributing the bushfire chapter to the Climate Hazards Synthesis report. It aims to summarise the ...

What makes a good fire simulator?

Fire simulators have become an important tool for tactical and strategic fire management, as well as fire behaviour and risk research. This NHRA-funded project combines social science and natural sciences to understand how fire behaviour ...

Fire management approaches to mitigate the impacts of bushfires on ecological values

This project explores the ability of fuel management activities to mitigate bushfire impacts on ecological values. It does this through the integration of the landscape simulation modelling software ‘Fire Regimes and Operations Simulations ...
No results found.

Other Capabilities

Landscape Flammability

Environmental and human factors can strongly influence fire behaviour by changing the vegetation. Understanding the role of these influencing factors and the contribution of vegetation itself to fire behaviour is vital to better estimate landscape flammability.

Fire & Forest Ecology

Our work aims to understand how fire regimes affect plants, animals and ecosystem function and how management decisions can mitigate negative fire impacts and enhance ecosystem resilience under changing climate and fire regimes.

Fire Behaviour

Fire behaviour research seeks to understand the mechanisms that govern fire spread and its interactions with vegetation, structures, and the built environment. Through innovative experiments and advanced modelling, we improve the prediction of fire behaviour, firebrand transport and ignition, and Wildland–Urban Interface fire dynamics.

No results found.