I completed my Master of Environment in July 2024. Building on my background in environmental science and interest in climate change, my postgraduate specialisation allowed me to explore climate-change-related topics in depth. This was where my academic path first intersected with research on extreme events. Through one of my coursework subjects, I gained valuable insights into both local and global extreme events, which sparked my specific research interest in future fire risk, one of Australia’s most critical challenges. Motivated by this interest, I dedicated my final semester to a research project on wildfire, during which I had the opportunity to work under the supervision of Dr. Hamish Clarke on my major thesis. The study provides valuable evidence on the application of existing wildfire ignition models to project wildfire risk under climate change scenarios. Completing the research project demonstrated how scientific work can extend beyond academic boundaries and provided an opportunity to acquire valuable research skills.
Thesis – Climate Change Impacts on Ignition Probability
In recent decades, there have been shifts in the frequency, intensity, and associated impacts of wildfire under the influence of climate change. This trend is particularly pronounced in fire-prone regions like southeast Australia. Ignition is one of four key drivers of wildfire risk, and understanding shifts in its likelihood is critical for guiding future fire management strategies and adaptive policies. Using an empirical ignition model forced by downscaled weather projections, this study projected changes in the combined ignition probability from natural and anthropogenic sources under climate change in Victoria. The results showed an increase in ignition probability across most of Victoria, with the greatest increases occurring in north-western areas. Increases in mean ignition probability were concentrated during the current fire season (spring and summer), peaking in December. In contrast, the greatest increases in extreme (95th percentile) ignition probability were projected for November. The projected changes suggest an overall heightened wildfire risk, with implications for fire management and biodiversity conservation.
