Project: Fire Risk Modelling | Future Fires

Characterising and managing fire risks to plantations under changing climates

Changing climates are creating significant fire risks to Australian plantations. Fires are predicted to become more frequent and intense, potentially resulting in increased plantation losses to wildfire. Existing fire simulation models do not adequately represent fire in plantations due to inappropriate fire spread models and a lack of data for plantations throughout their lifecycle. Quantifying risks from wildfires to plantations under current and future climates requires modelling approaches that adequately represent fire spread in order to understand not only the exposure to fire, but the vulnerability to those fires. In this project, we aim to quantify risks to plantations from wildfire and the ability of management to reduce those risks. For multiple plantation landscapes across Australia, the project will deliver: region-specific models for predicting plantation fuel structure and fire behaviour; fire risk profiles for plantations and nearby community assets under changing climates; and underlying data for evidence-based decision making around fire risks to plantations and community assets under changing climates.

Project timeline: 08/2020 – 08/2022

More Projects

Restoration of eucalypt forest in Wilsons Promontory National Park- Implications for forest values and site and landscape flammability

Wilsons Promontory provides an example of how repeated short interval fires can prevent the regeneration of a Eucalyptus canopy in a range of ecological vegetation classes. The ‘destocking’ of forests can dramatically alter the composition, ...

Mulching as a fuel management technique

Fire managers use a range of methods to manage fuels as a means of reducing bushfire risk. Mulching is one such method where the understorey vegetation is shredded, chipped or mulched to reduce the bushfire hazard and make fire suppression more ...

Understanding the origin and development of extreme and mega bushfires

Extreme and megafires result in significant damage to property and infrastructure and are associated with large suppression costs. These events form when separate fires merge. Their increase occurrence in recent seasons highlights the ...

Calling for PhD Candidates…

X