Project: Ecosystem Interaction

Dynamic fire risk modelling for house loss in the wildland–urban interface

Wildland–urban interface (WUI) fires have become one of the most significant manifestations of wildfire impacts on society, resulting in substantial losses of life, homes, infrastructure, and community assets worldwide. Against this background, this study aims to develop a dynamic, multi-scale fire risk modelling framework capable of predicting fire spread and house loss evolution during WUI fire events in real time. The framework will integrate the three primary ignition mechanisms—direct flame contact, thermal radiation, and firebrands—to capture the complex processes driving structure ignition and loss across multiple spatial scales. The applicability of the proposed framework will be demonstrated through representative WUI case studies, with the ultimate goal of providing practical guidance and decision-support capabilities for fire agencies and other end users to enhance WUI fire resilience.

Project timeline: 12/2025 – 06/2029

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