Project: Fire Risk Modelling

Ecosystem resilience prioritisation tool for fuel management planning

Large-scale bushfires are resulting in long-term negative declines in ecosystem resilience and ecological values across Victoria. The scale, frequency and intensity of these fire events is predicted to increase with future climate change. Identifying the management actions required to achieve desired ecological outcomes in landscapes which experience large-scale bushfires is a key challenge in contemporary fire management. We are producing a decision support tool which prioritises the application of fuel treatments based on their leverage over long-term trends for ecological values such as relative abundance of selected species, and vegetation tolerable fire intervals and growth stages. The tool will be aligned with existing systems and processes and will provide quantification of the leverage of fire management actions over influencing bushfire outcomes and implications for ecosystem resilience.

Project timeline: 08/2024 – 08/2025

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