Future climate change scenarios predict a global increase in bushfire activity. This will pose an increasing threat to plantations, particularly in Australia. Bushfires that impact plantations can have flow-on effects for other parts of the industry, resulting in significant negative economic and social impacts to regional communities. This project seeks to address critical gaps in current understanding and management of fire risks in Australian plantations. We aim to enhance fire resilience, inform adaptive management practices, and mitigate fire risks under a changing climate through a comprehensive three-year research plan that builds upon previous research.
The project focuses on three overarching objectives:
- Improving fire resilience and response by understanding fire behaviour, ignition catchments, plantation risk profiles, and suppression effectiveness.
- Enhancing fire prediction accuracy by refining existing softwood models and developing new hardwood models for the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS).
- Quantifying the effectiveness of fuel management strategies under changing climates by simulating future fire regimes under contemporary and alternate management.
Project timeline: 02/2026 – 06/2028