Project: Fire Risk Modelling

Fire risk modelling to support fire management within New South Wales

A comprehensive bushfire risk management framework currently exists in New South Wales (supported by legislation and policy). This framework provides a platform for the development of a Bushfire Risk Management Plan. In recent times there have been significant scientific advancements in fire spread modelling, quantitative risk assessment and the availability of spatial data. These areas of development are fundamental to bushfire risk management. There is an opportunity to incorporate these developments into the NSW framework to significantly improve the risk assessment methodology and provide better tools to support the process.

Our group was engaged to apply fire risk modelling methods to help inform the fire management planning process for the State of NSW. The University of Melbourne have an existing fire behaviour simulation methodology (PHOENIX) that will assist the NSW RFS in building a quantitative bush fire risk model in NSW. The project aims to estimate risk across a range of social, environmental and infrastructure assets within these landscapes, for every Bush Fire Management Committee in NSW by the end of the project. Results from this project will guide fuel management in NSW in an attempt to mitigate some of the risks from future fire.

Project timeline: 02/2021 – 07/2023

More Projects

The influence of fire severity on faunal persistence

Over half of all terrestrial systems require fire to maintain ecological integrity. In regions where fire is a frequent disturbance, there is ongoing pressure on the community to evolve and adapt to a specific fire regime. However, with the ...

Dynamic fire modelling and communication

This University of Melbourne-funded project builds on two related projects, Wildfire risk communication and New wildfire risk models, to develop a unified, dynamic platform for modelling and communicating wildfire risk. The key advance in this ...

Fire management approaches to mitigate the impacts of bushfires on ecological values

This project explores the ability of fuel management activities to mitigate bushfire impacts on ecological values. It does this through the integration of the landscape simulation modelling software ‘Fire Regimes and Operations Simulations ...