Project: Fire Risk Modelling

Fire risk modelling to support fire management within New South Wales

A comprehensive bushfire risk management framework currently exists in New South Wales (supported by legislation and policy). This framework provides a platform for the development of a Bushfire Risk Management Plan. In recent times there have been significant scientific advancements in fire spread modelling, quantitative risk assessment and the availability of spatial data. These areas of development are fundamental to bushfire risk management. There is an opportunity to incorporate these developments into the NSW framework to significantly improve the risk assessment methodology and provide better tools to support the process.

Our group was engaged to apply fire risk modelling methods to help inform the fire management planning process for the State of NSW. The University of Melbourne have an existing fire behaviour simulation methodology (PHOENIX) that will assist the NSW RFS in building a quantitative bush fire risk model in NSW. The project aims to estimate risk across a range of social, environmental and infrastructure assets within these landscapes, for every Bush Fire Management Committee in NSW by the end of the project. Results from this project will guide fuel management in NSW in an attempt to mitigate some of the risks from future fire.

Project timeline: 02/2021 – 07/2023

More Projects

Understanding the origin and development of extreme and mega bushfires

Extreme and megafires result in significant damage to property and infrastructure and are associated with large suppression costs. These events form when separate fires merge. Their increase occurrence in recent seasons highlights the ...

Future fire regimes in the Pyrocene

Large and severe wildfires impact people and places globally, and recent examples of extensive wildfires around the world – from Southeastern Australia, Western USA, Greece, Portugal, Canada, and, unexpectedly, in the historically cool ...

Ecosystem resilience in ecological fire groups – ERP 28

The overarching aim of this projects is to understand the effects of bushfires and planned burning on ecosystem resilience, focusing on four key ecosystems in Victoria: Grassy Heathy Dry Forest, Iron Bark / Box, High Altitude Shrubland Woodland ...

Calling for PhD Candidates…