Project: Fire Risk Modelling

Fire risk modelling to support fire management within New South Wales

A comprehensive bushfire risk management framework currently exists in New South Wales (supported by legislation and policy). This framework provides a platform for the development of a Bushfire Risk Management Plan. In recent times there have been significant scientific advancements in fire spread modelling, quantitative risk assessment and the availability of spatial data. These areas of development are fundamental to bushfire risk management. There is an opportunity to incorporate these developments into the NSW framework to significantly improve the risk assessment methodology and provide better tools to support the process.


Our group was engaged to apply fire risk modelling methods to help inform the fire management planning process for the State of NSW. The University of Melbourne have an existing fire behaviour simulation methodology (PHOENIX) that will assist the NSW RFS in building a quantitative bush fire risk model in NSW. The project aims to estimate risk across a range of social, environmental and infrastructure assets within these landscapes, for every Bush Fire Management Committee in NSW by the end of the project. Results from this project will guide fuel management in NSW in an attempt to mitigate some of the risks from future fire.

Project timeline: 02/2021 – 07/2023

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