Project: Fire Risk Modelling

Fire risk modelling to support fire management within New South Wales

A comprehensive bushfire risk management framework currently exists in New South Wales (supported by legislation and policy). This framework provides a platform for the development of a Bushfire Risk Management Plan. In recent times there have been significant scientific advancements in fire spread modelling, quantitative risk assessment and the availability of spatial data. These areas of development are fundamental to bushfire risk management. There is an opportunity to incorporate these developments into the NSW framework to significantly improve the risk assessment methodology and provide better tools to support the process.


Our group was engaged to apply fire risk modelling methods to help inform the fire management planning process for the State of NSW. The University of Melbourne have an existing fire behaviour simulation methodology (PHOENIX) that will assist the NSW RFS in building a quantitative bush fire risk model in NSW. The project aims to estimate risk across a range of social, environmental and infrastructure assets within these landscapes, for every Bush Fire Management Committee in NSW by the end of the project. Results from this project will guide fuel management in NSW in an attempt to mitigate some of the risks from future fire.

Project timeline: 02/2021 – 07/2023

More Projects

Characterising and managing fire risks to plantations under changing climates

Changing climates are creating significant fire risks to Australian plantations. Fires are predicted to become more frequent and intense, potentially resulting in increased plantation losses to wildfire. Existing fire simulation models do not ...

Cost effectiveness

Fire managers are increasingly relying on fuel management and suppression efforts to control the impacts of shifting fire regimes. Previous research has demonstrated that when properly applied, these management actions can reduce risks. ...

Vegetation monitoring in remnant native vegetation (PF Olsen Australia)

PF Olsen Australia manages a diverse plantation estate across Australia on behalf of various clients. The estate contains patches of remnant vegetation and there is a need to monitor the quality of these patches through time. This project aims ...

Calling for PhD Candidates…

X