Project: Fire Risk Modelling | Future Fires

Integrated strategic bushfire management in a changing climate

Climate change is projected to make bushfire conditions worse in Victoria and increase the frequency and severity of fire events. The advances made through risk-based approaches to bushfire management have been significant and have contributed to strategic bushfire management that has improved the safety of the Victorian community and allowed for more strategic approaches to deliver outcomes for the environment. However, the impacts of the Black Summer bushfires of 2019 and 2020 highlighted the extent of the challenge that remains in applying bushfire management that delivers positive social, economic, and environmental outcomes.  Building off previous projects which simulate future fire regime changes under various management scenarios, this project will address a range of critical knowledge gaps, improved modelling inputs to ensure that assessments of effectiveness are robust. The aim of this project is to develop the modelling frameworks require to assess the cost-effectiveness of management strategies on a state-wide level. This information will allow Victorian bushfire management agencies to more fully evaluate the array of options for strategic bushfire management actions that represent the most cost-effective approaches for achieving social, economic and environmental outcomes.

Project timeline: 06/2024 – 06/2027

Photo credit: Eddy Summers

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