Project: Fire Risk Modelling

Understanding Drivers and Consequences of Windthrow across temperate Australian forest landscapes

Windthrow, the uprooting or stem fracture of trees during high wind events, is a natural disturbance process with both ecological benefits and risks. While it creates canopy gaps that promote regeneration and biodiversity, increasing frequency and severity of windthrow under climate change poses threats to forest carbon storage, ecosystem resilience, and human assets. Globally, research on windthrow has largely focused on Europe, North America, and tropical forests, with recent advances leveraging remote sensing technologies such as satellite imagery and LiDAR to detect, map, and quantify damage, as well as to identify key drivers including wind speed, soil depth, topography, and stand structure. However, temperate Australian forests remain underrepresented in this body of work, despite their unique ecological context. Dominated by eucalypt species, characterised by structurally complex canopies, and shaped by diverse disturbance histories (e.g., wildfire, timber harvesting), these systems may respond differently to extreme wind events. Furthermore, little is known about the ecological and carbon-related consequences of windthrow in these forests, limiting predictive capacity for future disturbance regimes.

This research addresses these gaps by investigating the drivers and impacts of windthrow across temperate Australian forest landscapes. By integrating geospatial analysis of remote sensing datasets with field-based validation, the project will characterise spatial patterns of windthrow, assess the relative influence of environmental and structural factors, and quantify ecological consequences such as changes in carbon stocks and canopy dynamics. The findings will provide new insights into windthrow processes in Australian forests, enhance capacity to assess risks under a changing climate, and inform strategies for sustainable forest management and resilience planning.

Project timeline: 03/2025 – 09/2028

More Projects

Future fire regimes and their impact on mammal populations

Fire drives patterns in mammal biodiversity across the globe.  However, due to climate change fire regimes are shifting and this impacts species and their populations. It is important we gain a better understanding of how species are affected ...

Quantify fire behaviour effects of Blackberry in pine plantations and developing predictive models for incorporating woody weed encroachment into bushfire risk management plans and the Australian Fire Danger Rating System

Managers of pine plantations note that at various different age classes and after thinning, plantations are often heavily impacted by woody weed encroachment, primarily blackberry. They hypothesise that blackberry is a contributor of rate of ...

Wildfire evidence briefs

How do we translate complex and evolving scientific knowledge about wildfire into clear guidance for decision makers and the public? Health and medicine have a strong track record of synthesising and summarising complex information on specific ...
No results found.